Facts and Fallacies

I have been reading this book that has some interesting fallacies that people often bring up in arguments, then it uses facts o prove why and how they are wrong. The books name is economic facts and fallacies by Thomas Sowell. 

One thing that I learned was that fallacies have a really strong hold on people. When someone makes someone actually think those fallacies are true wether that be for political benefit or personal belief, the other person actually starts to take it really seriously. Fallacies spread when someone starts believing in one and spreads the word as learning something new! But the meaning of fallacies is widely misunderstood. In the book it states “ Fallacies are not simply crazy ideas. They are usually both plausible and logical- but with something missing.

These

Now here are some examples of some fallacies proven wrong with facts:

Fallaci: The Zero-Sum Fallacy 

Fact: This fallacy implicates that in a trade something is gained by someone and lost by someone else. But that is not how trading works. If this case were true then the person trading would not trade anything if he is not also benefiting. The economy works so when I give someone Money for exchange of goods we both profit, the other guy gets money to spend and I get the product that will help me. Then this money circulates in the economy as he spends it on something then the money gets spent again till the money comes back to me so I can spend it again for an exchange of goods. This cycle repeats its self. 

Fallaci: The fallacy of composting 

Fact: This fallacy states that what is true for one is true for all. This is false though because many politicians use this rule in some relief bills. But this never works. Some groups go through different things than others. People also say that government spending s essential for making jobs and helping the economy. But this can be proven wrong!  If I were to keep the extra taxes I payed the government I can spend that money. When if spend that money I give that to a big or small business, helping them pay their employees and debt. Then when they have more Monet at the end of the year because of me spending more they can get new jobs to be more efficient, With that I also helped the economy and provided many businesses with my business. So all that extra money people have spent can also be beneficial to the economy, as well as helping me get the goods I want for my personal use. 

Fallaci: Overpopulation is a cause of poverty 

Fact: This is false! Before subways and transportation in the world people had to be really close to their jobs (at a walking distance) So they would overpopulate the area with the most jobs. Then after cars and underground railroads and subways were made people started to spread out and colonize more places outside of cities. Now you may ask “how does this apply to this.” Well actually this is the main reason. When people don’t have enough Money to spend on transportation they have no choice but to live near work. In third world countries many people don’t have money to spend on transportation causing overpopulation. So in other words “Poverty Is The Cause Of Overpopulation.”  

Fallaci: Mixing poor families in a rich neighbor hood can be benefaction to them as rich families can rub off on them.

Facts: Though this claim would make sense this claim has been proven wring with actual experiments done. A study in the book states “in river dale a school once boasting a top academics reputation has seen its achievements drop refuting the idea that shipping poor families to good schools inn suburbs will cause an education to rub off.” This could also effect the reputation of the neighbor hood as the families might not be able to pay rent in time which will leave the banks hesitant to lend money to families in that neighbor hood. Another experiment in the book lists this “after hurricane Katrina in 2005 more than 100,000 people fled the area tp Houston. The people who fled had half the house hold income than existing Houston residents, in the city also kids did less well than existing residents and also had a crime rate 4 Times of Houston. Their move was then followed by a sharp rate of increase in crime rate specially murder, so this proves that moving people to a new place does not change their behavior.”

So lets recap, we learned the zero sum fallacy, fallacy of composting, overpopulation is a cause of poverty, and mixing poor families in rich neighbor hoods does not always have the  expected effect.

Climate Change

Many climate change activists like Greta and others keep saying how “We Have Only 20 Years Before There’s No Turning Back.” But how true is this?

Well here is the real data that they don’t openly show!

In 2100 study show the sea levels will rise 2 feet (0.6in). But that’s not apocalyptic as they claim. Finland since 400 years has been under sea level (1/3 of Finland) but they have been able to control it by a complex system of dams. And they are way below sea level about 7 meters, so if they can manage it so can the rest of us!

Because of climate change the amount of natural disaster deaths have decreased by 99.7%

since 1937, even though the human population has gone up 4 times. In 1931, 3.7 million people died from natural disasters. In 2018, just 11,000 did.

Also earths climate is known to change throughout history! They don’t tell this openly to the public but its true. Earths climate just does not settle. It is known for its unpredictable patterns.

People say climate change effects agriculture, but does it?

Humans are also known to adept to their environment. I am not saying climate change is not a issue, just that we are over exaggerating it and that climate change is not growing as fast we all are told. We can take small steps like

Humans today produce enough food for 10 Billion people, this 25% more food than we need.

The United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) forecasts, The amount of food will increase by 30% in 2050.

Animal Kingdom

Animal kingdom is being impacted by climate change like destruction of their habitats etc. About 1 million species are being impacted because of climate change. Some that can adapt quickly will survive, but the ones that can’t keep up don’t seem like they will survive.

Conclusion

I am not saying that climate change is not something to worry about, just that we over exaggerate it as humans are known to do. The rate at which activists are describing is way more than the actual rate. There are ways we can slow climate change down like:

Using Solar Panels

Using Electric cars

Etc…

With these we can slow down climate change.

Golden rule of investing

To earn money in stock markets you need to first know the companies inside out.

Things you need to know about the company are:

1.Balance sheet, income statement, cash flow (Financials) 

this tells you if a company can survive the markets.If the company has a lot of debt and little cash it can’t survive the market and the competition.But if it is a healthy company and has great cash and debt ratio then it has a great chance of outperforming in its sector.

2. How it serves its costumer

This is a really important one because the customer needs to like the service so they co back to buy more. So the customer and the business have a great relation ship. So if the company has a great relation with their customers then they can make money from the person coming back.

3. Product 

This is another huge one.A company needs to have great products so costumers like it.Just like number 2, if customers like the product they will keep buying from there and thus giving the company their business.

To find if the company has these things you need to go in person to their store or their work place, and find out everything.How they treat their customers and how their products are and if they are good.this is the golden rule in investing. 

How did Elon Musk become the richest person in the world and will be be the worlds first trillionair

There is no doubt that Elon musk is a great business man.He has many great companies like Space X and Tesla.And now just recently he passed Jeff Bezos as the richest man in the world.But that also raises many questions.Like ‘How did Elon musk get there’ and ‘will he be the first ever Trillionair’.I will try to answer those questions from what I think will happen.

How Tesla was found 

According to Elon musk, he asked AC Propulsion founder Alan Cocconi and CEO Tom Gage if they would be willing to commercialize tzero (an electric car), they both agreed according to musk.Then the money he made from being the co founder of PayPal,though later eBay bought pay pal from which he made a lot of Money.Then he invested $6.3 billion into Tesla.And then a new company was born.

How Space X was found 

In early 2002, Musk started to look for staff for his new space company, soon to be named SpaceX. Musk approached rocket engineer Tom Mueller (later SpaceX’s CTO of propulsion), and invited him to become his business partner. Mueller agreed to work for Musk, and thus SpaceX was born

So you see these Huge company in present day got him most of his wealth.

Now you may ask “yeah I know but why did his wealth boost all of a sudden recently.”Well that is a easy, its because of TESLA. Tesla has been out performing all the stocks and has gone up 8x its value because of people buying heavy amount of equity’s.Though I personally think teslas a bubble some dedicated investors think it’s a serious buy.

Will he be the next trillionair 

I would say NO.Now the answer may depend on how you think on Tesla.I think it is a bubble.So it depends what you think if Tesla because Tesla is why he made a lot of his wealth.Now I think Tesla is a bubble as I mentioned previously. So Tesla should burst as a bubble sometime in its life time.SO that means a but if his wealth might take a dib because of Tesla. So I think reaching trillion will be a hard job.

So the com closing will be No.I know that might not be the response you expected or wanted but that’s most likely the accurate response,But 1 Trillion is not a small amount.The richest person in history John D. Rockefeller had $400 Billion and made up 2% of the US GDP at his time.so 1 trillion is not a easy job.So I would not expect him to reach this among though if Tesla amazes everyone like it already has once again, it is possible he might reach $1 Trillion.

Should you consider buying Disney

Disney is an amazing place. They make their rides fun

.And people love it.Anytime of the year you go you see so many people just waiting in line for hours just to ride one ride. Some family make it is tradition to go to Disney each year, personally I have met many crazy Disney fans in my time.So that raises one question,IF Disney is so popular and attracts millions of guests from around the world then…should you buy into its stock.

So we need to first asses it from a few angles

  1. Is it well know and makes good profit.
  2. Does it have good financials(balance sheet, income statement, cashflow)
  3. Is it overpriced 

Every-time you buy into a stock you need to look at these and figure out if the stock is doing well in these criteria.

  • Now let’s look at number 1 ‘does $DIS well known and makes good profit’.The answer to this is really easy and I discussed it in the first paragraph, YES. $DIS well known and many people visit it each year.You can try it your self, go to Disney anytime of the year and you will find tons and tons of people.Disney also has many theme parks at many different country’s and places in country’s,So it has many parks collectively making profit from different places.Disney also has well placed gift shops with their own merchandise.So if you go there you will find your self walking out with a mickey mouse or a little stuffed goofy dog.

-Cashflow, Number 2, ‘does Disney have good financials’.I would like to talk about its cash flow first as it is the easiest to recommend.The cash flow is great.Many people come and buy their merchandise which have a huge margin.But they don’t just make there money from theme parks.In fact the theme parks only make 41.3% of Disneys profits.They also come from subscriptions from Disney plus and much more.Though the money that they make from theme parks mostly comes from the magic kingdom.The Magic Kingdom Park in Bay Lake, Florida, ranked first in 2015 with 20.49 million visitors. The third-largest revenue stream  with 9.44 billion U.S. dollars.

-Balance sheet.The cash in there is 17 billion which is 12 Billion more than it was before in 2019.Now you may be asking “this stock is heaven so why is it so complicated if you should buy it.”Well the cash did jump but this is not jumping large like this each year.Also because the total liabilities are 107 billion dollars and the debt is rising largely. 

So the balance sheet is not as healthy.

  • Finally Number 3, ‘is Disney over priced.

My answer:sadly YES.

Disney is over priced.This will raise another question ‘How much over priced’.I saw the price should be 72.57/share.But at max maybe 100/share should also be fine.So as if now it is at 177/share which is way over priced.

So if I were you I would not buy Disney and maybe keep on searching for other great stocks.

Should you invest in Macys

Macys ($M) is a great company and has great potential.It is rapidly rising and many people shop there.It took a huge 72% blow because of COVID lockdowns and as a result is undervalued.I have looked at all aspects of it and saw the balance sheet, income statement, cash flow,History of the company.

Customer Satisfaction 

The company is well known.Now you may ask “what do I do with that info its useless.” Well actually this Is vital info while investing in something.You always need to know about your company and how well it delivers customer satisfaction.

In Macys case It is a well know stock and provides the best service.I have been there to better accurate my self with the environment and was pleasantly surprised.This is an important criteria and I give $M a pass in this.

Score: Pass

Financials

The financials all include the companies finances (balance sheet, Income statement, Cash-flow).This is also a HUGE criteria in deciding to invest in a company.I have looked into the company’s financials and have come up with this conclusion.

Balance sheet-It looks fine as it has 685 Million in cash and investments.It keeps adding cash specially in the 4th quarter as it makes the most money in the 4th quarter.The company also has grown largely in 2019.So if the company gets to the same level as it once was it would have doubled its balance sheet.

The debt is high though it is decreasing as the company comes closer and closer to returning to its original price.

Income statement-The cost of goods sold is 25 Billion which is really High.The interest on debt is easily payable only being 214 million.So the compney can pay of its debt and interest and makes a huge amount in cash.

Score: Pass

Though there is one more question needed to be asked.Is it overvalued.

Answer: NO NO NO 

It fell 75% because of covid and in on the rebound and is making it back to its original price QUICKLY  

So if I were you I would invest his moment as it is making quite a rebound and is going up fast.It is I great equity and is going to be the best gainer.

Why you should avoid investing in tech

Tech is a great sector o invest in though as if now if I were you I would wait, and here is why.

Now I will not disagree that tech companies are great like apple with way to much cash and bacassily no debt, and Microsoft with its great revenue.But there is only one problem.It is way overpriced.

Now you might say “hey but that’s just your opinion” well you are right in my opinion it is overpriced, though I have some indications to prove it is. 

Now you see that apple is just hovering over the line as if not.But it grew so much after the pandemic that it has been fluctuating around the line, this is because people bought it so much more than it is so the company can’t go up and only goes down.

Nasdaq is not going higher than it is and is constantly hovering while Dow Jones  and S&P 500 are growing constantly as they don’t have overpriced stocks.

Though if the tech goes down a bit and gets on the value it deserves to be at then it is a perfect buy as companies like apple and Microsoft domate the markets.And how amazon is making profits because people are ordering things to their own home because of the quarantine.


One example of when it happened was in 2007 when Microsoft fell and did not come back to the same price for 6 years.And one when Microsoft fell and did not come back for 15 years 

So if I were you I would not invest as tech is hovering and is not growing.Tech  has double in less than a year and has no where else to grow.So that’s why I have disinvested from tech and am not going to invest till it comes back to the same price as it once was then it was on the price where it belonged.Though $AAPLis tempting as it keeps coming up with great products and how it is planing to make a #applecar in 2024.

A look inside GE and if you should invest

So GE is a great company to buy as if now in this market and I will break down for you why it is.I have looked at everything including the balance sheet,income statement, cash flow, and have done some heavy recherch on the company in general.

A look inside GE

Before we jump in to the companies state currently lets look at it’d past and how it came to be what it is today.

This may shock you but the company was owned by Thomas Edison and was named Edison General Electric.He had been working on the light bulb with his friend Nikola Tesla.A investor by the name of JP Morgan took interest in the invention.Though Morgans did thought it was a bad idea and discouraged it.So after his dads death because of a carriage accident he finally invested in the light bulb.Finally to endorse the light bulb JP Morgan held a party and invited everyone.He invited all the people and turned the lights on and it worked!the house was light and it looked like the sun had visited the party.

Though GE had a success they still had a opponent.Nikola Tesla was not treated well in Edisons company so he quit and made his own company.He got a investor by the name of Westinghouse.Though eddisons light bulb was criticized at the end he light up. The whole Chicago worlds fair.Soon after that JP. Morgan changed the companies name to just General Electric (GE).

GE today and why you should invest 

If you look into GE before the COVID-19 you can see it was at 12/share while now it is somewhere near 10.88/share so it is under valued.Also the name GE rings a bell and many homes have appliances from GE which is a good this while looking to invest.

GE also makes great products and has the best of the best.

Balance Sheet

While looking at the balance sheet it seemed strong.GE has 36 billion in cash and 26 billion in goodwill.And in inventory it has $14 billion.As the liabilities it has 40.1 Billion.But now you may wonder what good will is,well it is for example if someone overpays for something like acquiring a company then the money they overpaid for goes in goodwill.

Example:i bought apple at 130 per share but the balance sheet says its only 100 per share.SO that extra 30 goes in my good will.

Don’t let that debt fool you though.Through the years the balance sheet indicated the debt is going down and the cash GE has is going up so one day the will be able to pay of the debt.

Income statement 

I saw that they make a good amount of money and have a good amount left over so the company could one day have a tremendous amount of cash.

So if you are looking to add to your portfolio to make money this is the right compney and you will be satisfied with this investment.I have been invested in GE for a bit f time and have been satisfied with its returns.

What are the pros of switching from gold to paper money.

Gold is highly debated in the economic world right now.So I was wondering what is good about switching to paper money.And these important and notable facts are the ones I came up with.

Gold was stoped being used as currency in 1973 in the US.But before they stopped using gold its value TANKED.In 1970 if you were to go out and buy gold then you could buy gold for just $34/ounce,since then gold price has gone up 5300% which is 54 times its value in 1970.

Why did prices go down so much in value

They went down because people had so much use for it that there become a lot of need for it.And when something becomes common and overused then it decreases in value.Thats why when contras overprint money then then value decreases;

Example:when Venus vale printed sooo much money that their inflammation went to 1,698,488% in 2018.

So it is good that we switched to pepper money because the value of gold went down to the lowest it had ever been, and it kept depreciating. 

Still relying on gold would have another bad thing.The biggest gold extracting country’s in the world are China Australia and Russia.Though US also had a lot of gold extracting it can’t only get gold from itself so it would have to depend also on other country’s to get gold.This is bad because then the other contras can tax US heavily.

Money printing  

When there is a crisis and company’s are loosing a ton of money then the FED comes in and helps them by providing the companies with money.They do that by printing the money and giving them that.Now yes that does have the value depreciate but they make up for that by not printing as much money and bring the currency at the same value as it used to be.But with gold they can’t do that.

Fun facts about gold:

Why gold went up in 1980

Gold was at 850/ounce.GOLD went up because OIL had strong prices and because people started buying gold for their portfolios.Now you may wonder why do gold prices go up if oil prices go up.well that’s because This is because crude oil is primarily traded in U.S dollars. Since oil is used in the process of excavating and it is also used in the refining the gold process, if oil prices go up then gold prices also go up.

Human brain upload.can humans live forever

This is a huge debate in the science universe.This is also a thing you are Able to do in the game cyber punk 2077.

The mind is a huge part of the body.It is also quite sensitive, if you hit it too hard then you can damage it severely and sometimes prementimantly. Now uploading the mind is based on 3 assumptions one of which is 

  • Physicalism-This means that everything that we can learn about the mind can be found inside the brain itself.
  • Scalability-This is that when we understand the mind and all of its parts can make a digital mind copy.
  • Computability-This is when the consciousness can easily and accurately be simulated using computers and coding.

Though all these assumptions have been debated for a long time.Many people have their own opinions on the topics and so this has over the years became a little controversial.

Now lets talk more about the brain.So the brain is actually a really co p,ex thing all humans have.It has 100 billion neurons communicating through 1 million billion connections. These neurons are sending signals through your brain at 1000 signals/second,but now if you multiply that by all the neurons your brain produces 1 quadrillion signals/second. There are also many other things in the brain doing various tasks. 

The Neo cortex holds is the outer layer of the brain and holds things like:

  • Memory 
  • Plan 
  • Think 
  • Imagine 
  • Hope
  • Dream 

Though the consciousness remains unallocated.Precueus has the biggest part of the human consciousness but there are also many little small parts of the brain that play a role in this.

We know that hormones like serotonin(effects how we feel or mood) and histamine(our ability to learn).Our current machines are not as good and advanced to perform tasks like brain mapping.Though great methods like cutting the brain into little peaces can be a great method so then we can make a accurate map of the cells by using a electron microscope.

Though scanning the brain and accurately mapping is it hard work.We might even have to look at every single part that makes up the whole brain. But to map out the whole brain and upload it can use as much as more than all the data on earth. 

Though if something happens to the machine that has uploaded your brain and has all your consciousness then you might be stuck in the machine with paranoia and endless pain.

You could though cone your self and have a digital version of your self co-exist with you. With you being digital after a mind upload you can do things like go to Jupiter and answer the questions no one has a answer to, whats under Jupiters atmosphere.You could also skip parts by making time go faster for you.The longer your digital version lives the more they learn.You could do anything like change your personality and you could also remove memory that bugs you.Though there is a down side.The longer the digital version of you lives the less sympathy you will start to feel for the actual humans.

This may not be possible as the brain is too complex to clone.So you may not experience immortality, which is some situations is a good thing. For example if a leader starts attacking other country’s in war like hitler, the they will rule for a REALLY REALLY long time.But if you really do want to feel immortality the only thing you can do is play cyberpunk 2077.